Adaptive Moving Average = Counter Trend Opportunity
I have not had many trades in the past week so I leaned on my scientific background and started some experiments. Using my most favorite tool, higher highs and lower lows, I added an Adaptive Moving Average (AMA) to a 5 pip range bar chart. If you want to know the technical theory behind the AMA, google Perry Kaufman AMA.
The quick synopsis is that the AMA goes flat during periods of consolidation or congestion. The modified AMA that I have on the chart below also prints speed bumps to show momentum in either direction. If the AMA is flat and no speed bumps are printing then we have a ranging or chopping market. If you play HH/LL breakouts a ranging market will kill you with a thousand cuts. However, the flat AMA actually indicates that you can fade the HH/LL’s for nice scalp trades during a ranging market.

The first flat AMA occurred with price testing yesterdays lows, the daily pivot as well as a lower low. Fading the 50 level was good for 50+ pips, far from a scalp, but I would have probably been happy with 10-12 pips.
The second flat AMA fade occurred around 90 and was only good for 18 pips, so again a 10 -12 pip scalp would have been good.
I will be watching this over the next few days and reporting my findings here (counter trend forum).


