Category: EURUSD

EURUSD TPO Chart

Inside Day = Indecision or Opportunity

EURUSD TPO Chart
inside day

Today’s price action is closing in on an inside day. No new breakouts as .price was contained within yesterdays trading range. This usually means that the market is consolidating, but I also like to think of it as an opportunity for a longer term swing trade.

An inside day is a signal to get ready for an explosive move. The direction of the move is unknown, but that really doesn’t matter. What matters is that we prepare to take action once the market tips it’s hat.

Since we have not seen 3700 since September 21 – there is a low risk entry short if price tests that level again. If price can get a 30 minute close above 3700 – then I would look for the first pullback as an opportunity to get long with no resistance until 3800, and even that is minor.

As stated earlier the downside offers a simpler low risk entry at the round number (3700) – with the first real support being almost 150 pips away. If you miss the 00 entry look for pullbacks at the quarter levels – preferably 75 or 50.

Remember to have a roadmap, but to be open to detours.

Daily EURUSD Analysis

Yesterdays low was within 2-3 pips of our trading range low, making for a pretty low risk long entry.

Price action is still a little choppy, but trading above the daily pivot so I have a slight bas for the long side today, at least till we hit the virgin sitting at 1.3792.

Todays range – same as yesterday: 1.3590 – 1.3792

Daily EURUSD Analysis

A large gap opening makes for an interesting Monday!

The gap opened below daily support level 1 and has since traded below daily support level 2. Also of interest, the gap took aout a virgin POC at 1.3702. This gap effectively took out all of the support levels mentioned in Friday’s post. Daily support level 3 and last weeks lowest POC exist around 1.3590 so expect firm support, but below that is nothing but thin air.

There is a virgin POC above current PA at 1.3792 – be aware of it just in case we get a strong reversal, but I seriously doubt we will get there today.

Note: President Obama is speaking at 9 a.m. CST – be alert!

Trading Range: 1.3590 – 1.3792

Euro Analysis

At 7:30 am CST the EURUSD pair is currently trading below the pivot  at 1.3772 so my bias is for the short side. However, I expect a bumby ride as we are headed through several support zones. The daily pivot support is at 1.3740 with 4 hr support just above that at 1.3752. Additionally we have a virgin POC (yesterday) at 1.3723 and yesterdays value area low at 1.3707. If price does happen to get thru all of these levels then we still have another virgin waiting at 1.3680. Be quick to take profits today!

Just to be prepared, on the upside there is daily resistance at 1.3973 followed by a week old virgin at 1.4063.

Safe trading!

Anticipate

The open of US equities was met with some fierce selling in the Euro. If you missed the 100 or so pips that was offered, don’t fret… just patiently wait and anticipate where the pullback will be. I am guessing it will be somewhere around the 21 EMA – just a haunch.

EURUSD – Down, down, down

This morning saw the Euro pressured from the NY open. The following 3min chart shows that at 8:45am CST a market structure higher high was put in and price collapsed from that moment forward.

Today’s price action did not provide clear LH’s near the 21 EMA as it has in recent weeks, however, there were several “needles” into the cloud that were very tradable.

Although a lower high printed around 12 noon, I would like to see a higher low print before claiming the short sellers are done for the day.